Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN)
Specialty Retail · Seattle, WA
$256.97-1.54 (-0.60%)
Delayed quote: Sep 8, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
Specialty Retail · Seattle, WA
Delayed quote: Sep 8, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AMZN
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Amazon.com, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.8%/yr | 12.2% | $26.99 |
| Base case | 11.8%/yr | 11.2% | $33.46 |
| Optimistic | 14.8%/yr | 10.2% | $42.28 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $63.58 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$256.97
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$33.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMZN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $20.0B · 10.76B shares · net cash $21.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$33.46
-87.0% vs $256.97
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $256.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $39.01 | $41.09 | $43.47 | $46.24 | $49.49 |
| 10.2% | $34.49 | $36.05 | $37.81 | $39.81 | $42.11 |
| 11.2% | $30.91 | $32.12 | $33.46 | $34.97 | $36.67 |
| 12.2% | $28.01 | $28.97 | $30.02 | $31.19 | $32.48 |
| 13.2% | $25.62 | $26.39 | $27.23 | $28.15 | $29.17 |