TGM's two-stage DCF values Amcor plc (AMCR) between $10.68 and $48.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.16. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$47.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.8%/yr | 8.5% | $10.68 |
| Base case | 11.8%/yr | 7.5% | $25.16 |
| Optimistic | 14.8%/yr | 6.5% | $48.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $77.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$47.83
Market-Implied Growth
+20.4%/yr
vs +11.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.68 – $48.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMCR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $819.5M · 0.46B shares · net debt $13.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$25.16
-47.4% vs $47.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $47.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $41.71 | $50.68 | $62.63 | $79.36 | $104 |
| 6.5% | $27.10 | $32.48 | $39.20 | $47.83 | $59.33 |
| 7.5% | $17.38 | $20.92 | $25.16 | $30.34 | $36.81 |
| 8.5% | $10.46 | $12.93 | $15.82 | $19.23 | $23.32 |
| 9.5% | $5.28 | $7.09 | $9.17 | $11.55 | $14.34 |
