Amcor plc (AMCR) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Amcor plc (AMCR) between $10.61 and $48.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.07. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$41.08 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.8%/yr | 8.5% | $10.61 |
| Base case | 11.8%/yr | 7.5% | $25.07 |
| Optimistic | 14.8%/yr | 6.5% | $48.18 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $86.15 | |
Current Price
$41.08
Market-Implied Growth
+18.1%/yr
vs +2.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.61 – $48.18
model output — not a price target
AMCR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMCR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $819.5M · 0.46B shares · net debt $13.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$47.21
+14.9% vs $41.08
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.08; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $76.35 | $88.28 | $104 | $126 | $160 |
| 6.5% | $53.15 | $59.97 | $68.49 | $79.45 | $94.06 |
| 7.5% | $37.81 | $42.09 | $47.21 | $53.48 | $61.32 |
| 8.5% | $26.95 | $29.80 | $33.13 | $37.06 | $41.78 |
| 9.5% | $18.89 | $20.88 | $23.15 | $25.78 | $28.84 |
About Amcor plc
Amcor plc stands as a prominent global provider of packaging solutions, focusing on the creation, production, and distribution of its diverse product portfolio across Europe, North America, Latin America, Africa, and the Asia Pacific regions. The company's operations are divided into two main segments: Flexibles and Rigid Packaging. The Flexibles division specializes in offering advanced flexible and film packaging solutions, catering to a wide array of industries including food and beverages, medical and pharmaceutical sectors, fresh produce, snack foods, and personal care items. Meanwhile, the Rigid Packaging segment is responsible for manufacturing robust containers suitable for an extensive range of liquid and food products. This includes packaging for carbonated soft drinks, various types of water, juices, sports drinks, dairy-based beverages, spirits, beer, sauces, dressings, spreads, and personal care necessities. Additionally, this segment produces plastic closures designed for numerous applications. Amcor predominantly sells its offerings directly to clients through its dedicated sales force. The company was founded in 2018 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Zürich, Switzerland.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- CEO
- Peter Konieczny