TGM's two-stage DCF values Amcor plc (AMCR) between $12.07 and $50.67 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$41.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.4%/yr | 8.5% | $12.07 |
| Base case | 12.4%/yr | 7.5% | $26.92 |
| Optimistic | 15.4%/yr | 6.5% | $50.67 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $115.82 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$41.90
Market-Implied Growth
+18.3%/yr
vs +11.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$12.07 – $50.67
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AMCR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $819.5M · 0.46B shares · net debt $13.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$26.92
-35.7% vs $41.90
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $43.93 | $53.15 | $65.43 | $82.62 | $108 |
| 6.5% | $28.92 | $34.44 | $41.35 | $50.22 | $62.04 |
| 7.5% | $18.93 | $22.57 | $26.92 | $32.25 | $38.89 |
| 8.5% | $11.82 | $14.36 | $17.33 | $20.83 | $25.03 |
| 9.5% | $6.50 | $8.36 | $10.49 | $12.95 | $15.80 |
