TGM's two-stage DCF values AGCO Corporation (AGCO) between $61.98 and $117.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $82.67. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$121.21 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $61.98 |
| Base case | 2.5%/yr | 9.4% | $82.67 |
| Optimistic | 5.5%/yr | 8.4% | $117.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $86.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$121.21
Market-Implied Growth
+10.1%/yr
vs +3.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$61.98 – $117.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AGCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $517.5M · 0.07B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$82.67
-31.8% vs $121.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $121.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $105 | $114 | $126 | $140 | $158 |
| 8.4% | $86.10 | $92.82 | $101 | $110 | $121 |
| 9.4% | $72.15 | $77.05 | $82.67 | $89.14 | $96.71 |
| 10.4% | $61.33 | $65.05 | $69.23 | $73.96 | $79.38 |
| 11.4% | $52.70 | $55.60 | $58.81 | $62.40 | $66.44 |
