TGM's two-stage DCF values American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) between $14.11 and $23.38 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.00. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.6%/yr | 11.6% | $14.11 |
| Base case | 4.6%/yr | 10.6% | $18.00 |
| Optimistic | 7.6%/yr | 9.6% | $23.38 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $17.55 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$14.77
Market-Implied Growth
-0.2%/yr
vs +4.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.11 – $23.38
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AEO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $224.8M · 0.17B shares · net debt $79.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$18.00
+21.9% vs $14.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $21.33 | $22.63 | $24.15 | $25.93 | $28.06 |
| 9.6% | $18.59 | $19.55 | $20.64 | $21.90 | $23.36 |
| 10.6% | $16.45 | $17.18 | $18.00 | $18.93 | $19.98 |
| 11.6% | $14.74 | $15.31 | $15.94 | $16.65 | $17.44 |
| 12.6% | $13.34 | $13.79 | $14.29 | $14.85 | $15.46 |
