TGM's two-stage DCF values American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) between $14.76 and $24.47 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$17.23 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.7%/yr | 11.6% | $14.76 |
| Base case | 5.7%/yr | 10.6% | $18.83 |
| Optimistic | 8.7%/yr | 9.6% | $24.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $17.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$17.23
Market-Implied Growth
+3.5%/yr
vs +5.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.76 – $24.47
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AEO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $224.8M · 0.17B shares · net debt $79.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$18.83
+9.3% vs $17.23
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $17.23; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $22.34 | $23.71 | $25.30 | $27.18 | $29.43 |
| 9.6% | $19.45 | $20.46 | $21.61 | $22.94 | $24.47 |
| 10.6% | $17.20 | $17.97 | $18.83 | $19.81 | $20.92 |
| 11.6% | $15.40 | $16.00 | $16.67 | $17.41 | $18.24 |
| 12.6% | $13.92 | $14.41 | $14.93 | $15.51 | $16.16 |
