Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AEIS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($66.13) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$287.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.7%/yr | 11.6% | $42.53 |
| Base case | 6.7%/yr | 10.6% | $52.44 |
| Optimistic | 9.7%/yr | 9.6% | $66.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $59.47 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$287.25
Market-Implied Growth
+55.9%/yr
vs +6.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$52.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AEIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $125.3M · 0.04B shares · net cash $223.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$52.44
-81.7% vs $287.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $287.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $60.99 | $64.35 | $68.24 | $72.83 | $78.31 |
| 9.6% | $53.94 | $56.41 | $59.22 | $62.46 | $66.21 |
| 10.6% | $48.45 | $50.33 | $52.44 | $54.82 | $57.53 |
| 11.6% | $44.05 | $45.52 | $47.15 | $48.96 | $51.00 |
| 12.6% | $40.45 | $41.63 | $42.91 | $44.33 | $45.90 |
