Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AEIS
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($69.67) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$256.81 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +49.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 11.3% | $44.41 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 10.3% | $54.96 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 9.3% | $69.67 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $63.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$256.81
Market-Implied Growth
+49.5%/yr
vs +5.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$54.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AEIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $125.3M · 0.04B shares · net cash $223.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$54.96
-78.6% vs $256.81
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $256.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $64.19 | $67.90 | $72.24 | $77.39 | $83.61 |
| 9.3% | $56.54 | $59.23 | $62.32 | $65.90 | $70.08 |
| 10.3% | $50.63 | $52.67 | $54.96 | $57.56 | $60.54 |
| 11.3% | $45.93 | $47.51 | $49.27 | $51.24 | $53.45 |
| 12.3% | $42.11 | $43.37 | $44.75 | $46.27 | $47.97 |
