TGM's two-stage DCF values Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) between $131.64 and $218.25 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $167.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$212.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.0%/yr | 11.5% | $131.64 |
| Base case | 14.0%/yr | 10.5% | $167.92 |
| Optimistic | 17.0%/yr | 9.5% | $218.25 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $129.54 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$212.40
Market-Implied Growth
+20.1%/yr
vs +14.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$131.64 – $218.25
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.21B shares · net debt $234.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$167.92
-20.9% vs $212.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $212.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $201 | $213 | $228 | $246 | $267 |
| 9.5% | $174 | $183 | $194 | $206 | $221 |
| 10.5% | $153 | $160 | $168 | $177 | $187 |
| 11.5% | $136 | $142 | $148 | $155 | $163 |
| 12.5% | $123 | $127 | $132 | $137 | $143 |
