Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) between $134.51 and $223.06 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $171.60. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$198.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.6%/yr | 11.5% | $134.51 |
| Base case | 14.6%/yr | 10.5% | $171.60 |
| Optimistic | 17.6%/yr | 9.5% | $223.06 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $140.76 | |
Current Price
$198.43
Market-Implied Growth
+18.3%/yr
vs +15.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$134.51 – $223.06
model output — not a price target
ADSK DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.21B shares · net debt $234.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$255.77
+28.9% vs $198.43
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $198.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $323 | $340 | $360 | $384 | $412 |
| 9.5% | $274 | $286 | $300 | $316 | $335 |
| 10.5% | $237 | $246 | $256 | $267 | $280 |
| 11.5% | $208 | $214 | $222 | $230 | $239 |
| 12.5% | $184 | $189 | $195 | $201 | $207 |
About Autodesk, Inc.
Autodesk, Inc. delivers advanced software and services for 3D design, engineering, and entertainment to a global clientele. Their diverse product line includes AutoCAD Civil 3D, a comprehensive solution for civil engineering tasks such as land development, transportation infrastructure, and environmental projects. For construction project management, they offer BIM 360, a cloud-based platform. Core design and drafting needs are met by AutoCAD and its specialized counterpart, AutoCAD LT. The company also provides CAM software, essential for computer numeric control (CNC) machining, inspection, and manufacturing modeling, alongside Fusion 360, an integrated platform for 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering. Autodesk further provides curated Industry Collections, offering comprehensive toolsets for professionals in architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC), product design and manufacturing (PDM), and media and entertainment sectors. Their offerings extend to Inventor, a robust suite for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling creation, visualization, and documentation; and Vault, their data management solution, designed to centralize information, expedite design workflows, and enhance collaboration. For advanced 3D modeling, animation, special effects, rendering, and compositing, they provide Maya and 3ds Max. Additionally, ShotGrid serves the media and entertainment industry as a cloud-based platform for review processes and production tracking. Autodesk distributes its offerings both directly to customers and through an extensive network of authorized resellers and distributors. Established in 1982, the company is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- CEO
- Andrew Anagnost