TGM's two-stage DCF values Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) between $133.16 and $220.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $169.61. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$237.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.6%/yr | 11.6% | $133.16 |
| Base case | 14.6%/yr | 10.6% | $169.61 |
| Optimistic | 17.6%/yr | 9.6% | $220.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $132.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$237.38
Market-Implied Growth
+23.4%/yr
vs +15.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$133.16 – $220.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADSK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.21B shares · net debt $234.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$169.61
-28.5% vs $237.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $237.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $202 | $215 | $230 | $248 | $268 |
| 9.6% | $175 | $185 | $195 | $208 | $222 |
| 10.6% | $154 | $162 | $170 | $179 | $189 |
| 11.6% | $138 | $143 | $149 | $156 | $164 |
| 12.6% | $124 | $129 | $133 | $139 | $145 |
