TGM's two-stage DCF values Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) between $127.25 and $222.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $166.80. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$363.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.8%/yr | 11.1% | $127.25 |
| Base case | 16.8%/yr | 10.1% | $166.80 |
| Optimistic | 19.8%/yr | 9.1% | $222.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $185.83 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$363.20
Market-Implied Growth
+36.6%/yr
vs +17.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$127.25 – $222.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.7B · 0.49B shares · net debt $6.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$166.80
-54.1% vs $363.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $363.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1% | $204 | $219 | $236 | $258 | $283 |
| 9.1% | $173 | $184 | $196 | $211 | $228 |
| 10.1% | $150 | $158 | $167 | $177 | $189 |
| 11.1% | $131 | $137 | $144 | $152 | $161 |
| 12.1% | $116 | $121 | $127 | $133 | $139 |
