TGM's two-stage DCF values Adobe Inc. (ADBE) between $267.03 and $434.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $337.72. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$256.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.3%/yr | 12.0% | $267.03 |
| Base case | 12.3%/yr | 11.0% | $337.72 |
| Optimistic | 15.3%/yr | 10.0% | $434.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $332.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$256.64
Market-Implied Growth
+5.3%/yr
vs +12.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$267.03 – $434.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADBE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.6B · 0.40B shares · net debt $779.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$337.72
+31.6% vs $256.64
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $256.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $399 | $422 | $449 | $481 | $517 |
| 10.0% | $349 | $366 | $386 | $408 | $434 |
| 11.0% | $309 | $323 | $338 | $354 | $373 |
| 12.0% | $278 | $288 | $300 | $313 | $327 |
| 13.0% | $251 | $260 | $269 | $279 | $291 |
