TGM's two-stage DCF values Adobe Inc. (ADBE) between $264.10 and $428.29 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $333.52. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$257.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.3%/yr | 12.1% | $264.10 |
| Base case | 12.3%/yr | 11.1% | $333.52 |
| Optimistic | 15.3%/yr | 10.1% | $428.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $333.17 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$257.26
Market-Implied Growth
+5.7%/yr
vs +12.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$264.10 – $428.29
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADBE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.6B · 0.40B shares · net debt $779.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$333.52
+29.6% vs $257.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $257.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $393 | $416 | $442 | $472 | $508 |
| 10.1% | $345 | $361 | $381 | $402 | $427 |
| 11.1% | $306 | $319 | $334 | $350 | $368 |
| 12.1% | $275 | $285 | $296 | $309 | $323 |
| 13.1% | $249 | $257 | $266 | $276 | $287 |
