TGM's two-stage DCF values Adobe Inc. (ADBE) between $261.22 and $422.29 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $329.42. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$225.11 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.3%/yr | 12.2% | $261.22 |
| Base case | 12.3%/yr | 11.2% | $329.42 |
| Optimistic | 15.3%/yr | 10.2% | $422.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $338.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$225.11
Market-Implied Growth
+2.7%/yr
vs +12.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$261.22 – $422.29
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ADBE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.6B · 0.40B shares · net debt $779.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$329.42
+46.3% vs $225.11
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $225.11; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $388 | $410 | $435 | $464 | $499 |
| 10.2% | $340 | $357 | $375 | $396 | $421 |
| 11.2% | $303 | $315 | $329 | $345 | $363 |
| 12.2% | $272 | $282 | $293 | $305 | $319 |
| 13.2% | $247 | $255 | $264 | $273 | $284 |
