Aecom (ACM) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Aecom (ACM) between $55.20 and $105.21 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $75.38. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$69.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.7%/yr | 9.8% | $55.20 |
| Base case | 3.7%/yr | 8.8% | $75.38 |
| Optimistic | 6.7%/yr | 7.8% | $105.21 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $111.46 | |
Current Price
$69.59
Market-Implied Growth
+2.0%/yr
vs +3.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.20 – $105.21
model output — not a price target
ACM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $637.7M · 0.13B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$78.95
+13.4% vs $69.59
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $69.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $104 | $111 | $121 | $133 | $149 |
| 7.8% | $85.12 | $90.08 | $95.98 | $103 | $112 |
| 8.8% | $71.69 | $75.05 | $78.95 | $83.52 | $88.95 |
| 9.8% | $61.52 | $63.89 | $66.59 | $69.69 | $73.28 |
| 10.8% | $53.56 | $55.29 | $57.23 | $59.42 | $61.91 |
About Aecom
AECOM, along with its affiliated entities, delivers specialized infrastructure consulting services to public sector bodies, private businesses, and various organizations across the globe, with operations spanning the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company manages its extensive operations through three distinct segments: Americas, International, and AECOM Capital. For its commercial and governmental clientele, AECOM offers a comprehensive suite of services including strategic planning, expert consultation, architectural and engineering design, and robust construction and program management. Additionally, the firm is involved in investment and development initiatives, notably within the real estate sector. Its construction capabilities are extensive, covering general building projects, energy-related infrastructure, and industrial facilities. AECOM's proficiency is applied across critical sectors such as transportation, water resources, governmental services, facilities management, environmental solutions, and energy. Founded in 1980 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas, the company officially rebranded as AECOM in January 2015, having previously operated as AECOM Technology Corporation.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- CEO
- W. Troy Rudd