TGM's two-stage DCF values Aecom (ACM) between $55.57 and $102.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $72.91. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$64.60 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.7% | $55.57 |
| Base case | 2.6%/yr | 8.7% | $72.91 |
| Optimistic | 5.6%/yr | 7.7% | $102.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $104.71 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$64.60
Market-Implied Growth
+0.1%/yr
vs +2.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$55.57 – $102.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $637.7M · 0.13B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$72.91
+12.9% vs $64.60
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $64.60; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $92.10 | $101 | $112 | $126 | $145 |
| 7.7% | $75.63 | $81.62 | $88.76 | $97.40 | $108 |
| 8.7% | $63.74 | $67.99 | $72.91 | $78.69 | $85.57 |
| 9.7% | $54.75 | $57.89 | $61.46 | $65.56 | $70.31 |
| 10.7% | $47.72 | $50.12 | $52.81 | $55.84 | $59.28 |
