TGM's two-stage DCF values Aecom (ACM) between $56.11 and $107.51 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $76.80. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$72.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.7%/yr | 9.7% | $56.11 |
| Base case | 3.7%/yr | 8.7% | $76.80 |
| Optimistic | 6.7%/yr | 7.7% | $107.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $107.42 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$72.13
Market-Implied Growth
+2.4%/yr
vs +3.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$56.11 – $107.51
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $637.7M · 0.13B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$76.80
+6.5% vs $72.13
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $72.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $97.03 | $106 | $118 | $133 | $152 |
| 7.7% | $79.67 | $85.98 | $93.50 | $103 | $114 |
| 8.7% | $67.14 | $71.61 | $76.80 | $82.89 | $90.14 |
| 9.7% | $57.67 | $60.98 | $64.74 | $69.05 | $74.06 |
| 10.7% | $50.27 | $52.79 | $55.62 | $58.81 | $62.44 |
