TGM's two-stage DCF values ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW) between $24.18 and $47.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $33.59. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$51.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.3%/yr | 10.0% | $24.18 |
| Base case | 6.3%/yr | 9.0% | $33.59 |
| Optimistic | 9.3%/yr | 8.0% | $47.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $62.66 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$51.22
Market-Implied Growth
+15.3%/yr
vs +5.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$24.18 – $47.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACIW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $220.3M · 0.10B shares · net debt $652.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$33.59
-34.4% vs $51.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $51.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $42.66 | $46.77 | $51.78 | $58.04 | $66.08 |
| 8.0% | $34.93 | $37.73 | $41.03 | $44.98 | $49.81 |
| 9.0% | $29.27 | $31.28 | $33.59 | $36.29 | $39.47 |
| 10.0% | $24.95 | $26.45 | $28.14 | $30.08 | $32.31 |
| 11.0% | $21.54 | $22.69 | $23.98 | $25.43 | $27.07 |
