Arcosa, Inc. (ACA) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ACA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($37.02) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$144.90 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.0%/yr | 10.4% | $10.23 |
| Base case | 10.0%/yr | 9.4% | $21.21 |
| Optimistic | 13.0%/yr | 8.4% | $37.02 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $72.94 | |
Current Price
$144.90
Market-Implied Growth
+43.8%/yr
vs +11.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$21.21
model output — not a price target
ACA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $116.5M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$35.04
-75.8% vs $144.90
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $144.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $52.34 | $57.42 | $63.53 | $71.04 | $80.47 |
| 8.4% | $39.51 | $42.88 | $46.83 | $51.50 | $57.13 |
| 9.4% | $30.01 | $32.36 | $35.04 | $38.15 | $41.78 |
| 10.4% | $22.71 | $24.40 | $26.31 | $28.47 | $30.94 |
| 11.4% | $16.94 | $18.19 | $19.59 | $21.14 | $22.90 |
About Arcosa, Inc.
Arcosa, Inc. (ACA), founded in 2018 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is a leading North American supplier of essential infrastructure products and solutions. The company primarily serves the construction, energy, and transportation industries, operating through three distinct business segments. The Construction Products division provides natural and recycled aggregates, specialized materials, and protective equipment like trench shields and shoring, supporting a wide range of residential, commercial, agricultural, and general infrastructure projects. Its Engineered Structures segment manufactures diverse components, including utility poles, wind turbine towers, traffic and lighting structures, and telecommunication infrastructure, alongside tanks for storing and distributing gas and liquids. These products are crucial for electricity transmission, wind power generation, highway construction, wireless communications, and various residential, commercial, energy, agricultural, and industrial storage and transport needs. Lastly, the Transportation Products segment produces inland barges and related accessories such as fiberglass covers and winches. It also supplies cast components for industrial and mining applications, as well as specialized parts like axles, circular forgings, and coupling devices, which are vital for freight, tank, locomotive, and passenger rail equipment, in addition to other industrial uses.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial - Infrastructure Operations
- CEO
- Antonio Carrillo