Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ACA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($32.15) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$144.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.6%/yr | 10.3% | $7.30 |
| Base case | 7.6%/yr | 9.3% | $17.46 |
| Optimistic | 10.6%/yr | 8.3% | $32.15 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $73.33 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$144.74
Market-Implied Growth
+43.3%/yr
vs -0.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$17.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $116.5M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$17.46
-87.9% vs $144.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $144.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $27.09 | $31.31 | $36.41 | $42.69 | $50.62 |
| 8.3% | $18.94 | $21.87 | $25.30 | $29.37 | $34.29 |
| 9.3% | $12.89 | $15.02 | $17.46 | $20.29 | $23.59 |
| 10.3% | $8.23 | $9.83 | $11.64 | $13.70 | $16.05 |
| 11.3% | $4.52 | $5.77 | $7.16 | $8.71 | $10.45 |
