Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ACA
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($22.52) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$146.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.7%/yr | 10.4% | $1.97 |
| Base case | 3.7%/yr | 9.4% | $10.39 |
| Optimistic |
| 6.7%/yr |
| 8.4% |
| $22.52 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $65.54 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$146.22
Market-Implied Growth
+44.0%/yr
vs -0.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$10.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ACA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $116.5M · 0.05B shares · net debt $1.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$10.39
-92.9% vs $146.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $146.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $18.17 | $21.56 | $25.63 | $30.61 | $36.87 |
| 8.4% | $11.60 | $13.96 | $16.72 | $19.98 | $23.90 |
| 9.4% | $6.70 | $8.42 | $10.39 | $12.67 | $15.33 |
| 10.4% | $2.90 | $4.20 | $5.67 | $7.34 | $9.24 |
| 11.4% | N/A | $0.88 | $2.01 | $3.27 | $4.69 |
