Apple Inc.(AAPL)
Consumer Electronics · Cupertino, CA
$316.22-3.75 (-1.17%)
At close: Sep 8, 2026 (market close, ET)
Consumer Electronics · Cupertino, CA
At close: Sep 8, 2026 (market close, ET)
TGM's two-stage DCF values Apple Inc. (AAPL) between $91.91 and $160.63 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $120.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$316.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.9%/yr | 10.5% | $91.91 |
| Base case | 6.9%/yr | 9.5% | $120.14 |
| Optimistic | 9.9%/yr | 8.5% | $160.63 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $144.19 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$316.22
Market-Implied Growth
+31.3%/yr
vs +7.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$91.91 – $160.63
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AAPL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $104.2B · 14.69B shares · net debt $62.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$120.14
-62.0% vs $316.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $316.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $146 | $158 | $171 | $188 | $209 |
| 8.5% | $124 | $132 | $141 | $152 | $165 |
| 9.5% | $108 | $114 | $120 | $128 | $137 |
| 10.5% | $94.82 | $99.24 | $104 | $110 | $116 |
| 11.5% | $84.54 | $87.98 | $91.80 | $96.06 | $101 |