Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM)'s fair value in a range of $41.70 – $267.08 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $151.63 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $151.63, the market is pricing in roughly +16.5%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +6.2%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$151.63
Fair-Value Range
$41.70 – $267.08
Market-Implied Growth
+16.5%/yr
vs +6.2% 5Y actual
YUM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.28B shares · net debt $11.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$41.70
-72.5% vs $151.63
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $151.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $61.69 | $66.93 | $73.13 | $80.58 | $89.67 |
| 9.0% | $47.25 | $50.84 | $54.98 | $59.81 | $65.51 |
| 10.0% | $36.26 | $38.81 | $41.70 | $45.00 | $48.82 |
| 11.0% | $27.61 | $29.48 | $31.57 | $33.93 | $36.59 |
| 12.0% | $20.65 | $22.05 | $23.60 | $25.33 | $27.26 |
About Yum! Brands, Inc.
YUM! Brands, Inc. (YUM) is a leading global quick-service restaurant enterprise that focuses on the creation, management, and franchising of its restaurant concepts internationally. Its business is organized into four main divisions: KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and The Habit Burger Grill. The company operates establishments under these well-known brands, offering diverse food categories such as chicken, pizza, Mexican-style dishes, and made-to-order chargrilled burgers and sandwiches, among other food products. As of December 31, 2021, YUM! Brands boasted a significant worldwide presence, comprising 26,934 KFC outlets, 18,381 Pizza Hut locations, 7,791 Taco Bell restaurants, and 318 The Habit Burger Grill units, spread across roughly 157 countries and territories. The company, which maintains its headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky, was established in 1997. It was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc., before officially adopting the name YUM! Brands, Inc. in May 2002.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Restaurants
- CEO
- Christopher Lee Turner