TGM's two-stage DCF values Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU) between $52.65 and $87.61 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $68.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$44.93 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +7.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.3% | $52.65 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.3% | $68.37 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.3% | $87.61 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $51.54 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$44.93
Market-Implied Growth
+7.3%/yr
vs +36.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$52.65 – $87.61
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for YOU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $241.3M · 0.10B shares · net cash $85.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$68.37
+52.2% vs $44.93
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.93; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $83.90 | $90.71 | $98.94 | $109 | $122 |
| 8.3% | $70.76 | $75.47 | $81.00 | $87.55 | $95.47 |
| 9.3% | $61.03 | $64.45 | $68.37 | $72.91 | $78.23 |
| 10.3% | $53.55 | $56.12 | $59.03 | $62.32 | $66.10 |
| 11.3% | $47.62 | $49.61 | $51.83 | $54.32 | $57.12 |
