TGM's two-stage DCF values DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. (XRAY) between $6.66 and $18.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $10.67. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $6.66 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $10.67 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $18.19 |
Current Price
$14.20
Market-Implied Growth
+5.7%/yr
vs +1.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$6.66 – $18.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for XRAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $254.5M · 0.20B shares · net debt $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$10.67
-24.8% vs $14.20
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $15.61 | $17.94 | $20.84 | $24.54 | $29.42 |
| 7.6% | $11.36 | $12.91 | $14.76 | $17.01 | $19.80 |
| 8.6% | $8.31 | $9.41 | $10.67 | $12.17 | $13.95 |
| 9.6% | $6.02 | $6.82 | $7.74 | $8.79 | $10.01 |
| 10.6% | $4.23 | $4.84 | $5.53 | $6.30 | $7.19 |
