Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) between $67.60 and $176.52 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $116.15. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$107.27 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.0% | $67.60 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.0% | $116.15 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.0% | $176.52 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $267.39 | |
Current Price
$107.27
Market-Implied Growth
+16.9%/yr
vs +31.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$67.60 – $176.52
model output — not a price target
WYNN DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WYNN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $716.5M · 0.10B shares · net debt $9.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$262.33
+144.6% vs $107.27
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $107.27; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $374 | $410 | $453 | $508 | $578 |
| 8.0% | $289 | $313 | $340 | $373 | $413 |
| 9.0% | $228 | $244 | $262 | $284 | $309 |
| 10.0% | $182 | $193 | $206 | $221 | $238 |
| 11.0% | $146 | $154 | $164 | $174 | $186 |
About Wynn Resorts, Limited
Wynn Resorts, Limited excels in the conceptualization, development, and operation of upscale integrated resort properties. The Wynn Palace, situated in Cotai, boasts a gaming floor spanning 424,000 square feet, which includes 323 table games, 1,035 slot machines, exclusive private gaming salons, and sky casinos. Accommodations are offered in a luxurious hotel tower featuring 1,706 guest rooms, suites, and villas, complemented by a health club, spa, salon, and swimming pool. This location further provides 14 distinct food and beverage establishments, 107,000 square feet for retail, 37,000 square feet of conference and event space, alongside a performance lake and elaborate floral displays. The Wynn Macau resort presents a 252,000 square-foot casino housing 331 table games, 818 slot machines, private gaming salons, sky casinos, and a dedicated poker room. Its two opulent hotel towers collectively feature 1,010 guest rooms and suites, enhanced by two health clubs, two spas, a salon, and a swimming pool. Guests also have access to 14 dining and drinking venues, 59,000 square feet of shopping areas, 31,000 square feet of meeting and convention facilities, and a unique Chinese zodiac-inspired ceiling. The company's Las Vegas operations encompass a 194,000 square-foot casino, equipped with 223 table games, 1,751 slot machines, private gaming salons, a sky casino, a poker room, and a race and sports book. Two lavish hotel towers offer 4,748 guest rooms, suites, and villas, complete with multiple swimming pools, private cabanas, two full-service spas and salons, and a wedding chapel. Additional amenities include 32 food and beverage outlets, a substantial 513,000 square feet of meeting and convention space, 155,000 square feet of retail offerings, two theaters, three nightclubs, and a beach club. Finally, the Encore Boston Harbor facility comprises a 211,000 square-foot casino area, featuring 184 table games, 2,766 slot machines, various gaming zones, and a poker room. Its high-end hotel tower contains 671 guest rooms and suites, alongside a spa and salon. This property also includes 15 food and beverage options, a nightclub, 10,000 square feet of retail space, 71,000 square feet dedicated to meetings and conventions, a waterfront park, floral arrangements, and water shuttle services. Established in 2002, Wynn Resorts maintains its corporate headquarters in Las Vegas, Nevada.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
- CEO
- Craig Scott Billings