TGM's two-stage DCF values Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) between $67.55 and $176.44 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $116.09. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$99.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.0% | $67.55 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.0% | $116.09 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.0% | $176.44 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $269.75 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$99.01
Market-Implied Growth
+15.8%/yr
vs +31.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$67.55 – $176.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WYNN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $716.2M · 0.10B shares · net debt $9.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$116.09
+17.2% vs $99.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $99.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $165 | $187 | $214 | $248 | $292 |
| 8.0% | $123 | $138 | $156 | $178 | $204 |
| 9.0% | $92.85 | $104 | $116 | $131 | $148 |
| 10.0% | $69.63 | $77.67 | $86.78 | $97.18 | $109 |
| 11.0% | $51.38 | $57.56 | $64.47 | $72.22 | $81.00 |
