TGM's two-stage DCF values Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) between $65.36 and $171.35 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $112.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$87.70 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.1% | $65.36 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.1% | $112.75 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.1% | $171.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $271.44 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$87.70
Market-Implied Growth
+14.6%/yr
vs +21.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$65.36 – $171.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WYNN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $716.2M · 0.10B shares · net debt $9.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$112.75
+28.6% vs $87.70
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $87.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $160 | $182 | $207 | $240 | $281 |
| 8.1% | $120 | $134 | $152 | $172 | $197 |
| 9.1% | $90.25 | $101 | $113 | $127 | $143 |
| 10.1% | $67.61 | $75.44 | $84.28 | $94.37 | $106 |
| 11.1% | $49.77 | $55.80 | $62.53 | $70.07 | $78.60 |
