TGM's two-stage DCF values Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) between $97.88 and $142.39 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $113.85. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$245.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.4% | $97.88 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.4% | $113.85 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.4% | $142.39 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 12, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $89.39 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$245.53
Market-Implied Growth
+23.1%/yr
vs -3.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$97.88 – $142.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WSM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.12B shares · net cash $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$113.85
-53.6% vs $245.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $245.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | $131 | $137 | $144 | $152 | $162 |
| 10.4% | $117 | $122 | $127 | $133 | $140 |
| 11.4% | $106 | $110 | $114 | $118 | $124 |
| 12.4% | $97.10 | $100 | $103 | $107 | $111 |
| 13.4% | $89.64 | $92.02 | $94.62 | $97.46 | $101 |
