TGM's two-stage DCF values The Wendy's Company (WEN) between $7.81 and $26.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $14.99. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$6.16 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $7.81 |
| Base case | 3.2%/yr | 7.5% | $14.99 |
| Optimistic | 6.2%/yr | 6.5% | $26.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $97.47 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$6.16
Market-Implied Growth
-5.5%/yr
vs +2.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.81 – $26.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WEN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $251.5M · 0.19B shares · net debt $2.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$14.99
+143.3% vs $6.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $6.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $23.22 | $27.69 | $33.65 | $41.99 | $54.48 |
| 6.5% | $15.94 | $18.63 | $21.98 | $26.29 | $32.03 |
| 7.5% | $11.10 | $12.87 | $14.99 | $17.57 | $20.81 |
| 8.5% | $7.63 | $8.88 | $10.32 | $12.03 | $14.07 |
| 9.5% | $5.04 | $5.95 | $6.99 | $8.19 | $9.58 |
