TGM's two-stage DCF values WD-40 Company (WDFC) between $119.40 and $235.08 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $163.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$229.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.1%/yr | 8.5% | $119.40 |
| Base case | 8.1%/yr | 7.5% | $163.92 |
| Optimistic | 11.1%/yr | 6.5% | $235.08 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 16, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $311.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$229.24
Market-Implied Growth
+16.1%/yr
vs +9.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$119.40 – $235.08
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WDFC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $85.6M · 0.01B shares · net debt $28.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$163.92
-28.5% vs $229.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $229.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $214 | $241 | $278 | $328 | $405 |
| 6.5% | $170 | $186 | $207 | $233 | $268 |
| 7.5% | $140 | $151 | $164 | $180 | $199 |
| 8.5% | $119 | $127 | $136 | $146 | $158 |
| 9.5% | $103 | $109 | $115 | $123 | $131 |
