Why we don't show a single “fair value” for WDC
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Western Digital Corporation right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $8.39 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $9.61 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $11.79 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $50.98 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$477.30
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$9.61
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WDC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $251.5M · 0.35B shares · net cash $527.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.61
-98.0% vs $477.30
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $477.30; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $10.91 | $11.38 | $11.92 | $12.54 | $13.26 |
| 10.5% | $9.86 | $10.22 | $10.62 | $11.08 | $11.60 |
| 11.5% | $9.02 | $9.30 | $9.61 | $9.96 | $10.35 |
| 12.5% | $8.34 | $8.56 | $8.81 | $9.08 | $9.38 |
| 13.5% | $7.77 | $7.95 | $8.15 | $8.36 | $8.60 |
