TGM's two-stage DCF values Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) between $77.61 and $186.44 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $119.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$165.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.9%/yr | 8.5% | $77.61 |
| Base case | 13.9%/yr | 7.5% | $119.50 |
| Optimistic | 16.9%/yr | 6.5% | $186.44 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $101.20 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$165.68
Market-Implied Growth
+20.3%/yr
vs +16.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$77.61 – $186.44
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WCN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.25B shares · net debt $9.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$119.50
-27.9% vs $165.68
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $165.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $168 | $194 | $229 | $277 | $350 |
| 6.5% | $125 | $141 | $160 | $185 | $219 |
| 7.5% | $96.86 | $107 | $119 | $135 | $153 |
| 8.5% | $76.72 | $83.92 | $92.32 | $102 | $114 |
| 9.5% | $61.66 | $66.94 | $72.96 | $79.91 | $88.00 |
