TGM's two-stage DCF values Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) between $14.33 and $28.17 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $20.86. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$26.78 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $14.33 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $20.86 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $28.17 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $196.08 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$26.78
Market-Implied Growth
+22.5%/yr
vs +26.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$14.33 – $28.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WBD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.9B · 2.51B shares · net debt $28.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$20.86
-22.1% vs $26.78
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.78; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $26.52 | $28.60 | $30.97 | $33.71 | $36.89 |
| 10.5% | $21.93 | $23.51 | $25.27 | $27.28 | $29.56 |
| 11.5% | $18.28 | $19.50 | $20.86 | $22.38 | $24.08 |
| 12.5% | $15.30 | $16.28 | $17.35 | $18.53 | $19.84 |
| 13.5% | $12.84 | $13.63 | $14.49 | $15.43 | $16.46 |
