TGM's two-stage DCF values Viatris Inc. (VTRS) between $13.23 and $30.01 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$17.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $13.23 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $19.08 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $30.01 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $22.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$17.65
Market-Implied Growth
+0.9%/yr
vs +2.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.23 – $30.01
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VTRS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.2B · 1.16B shares · net debt $13.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$19.08
+8.1% vs $17.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $17.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $26.25 | $29.64 | $33.85 | $39.23 | $46.34 |
| 7.6% | $20.08 | $22.33 | $25.02 | $28.28 | $32.34 |
| 8.6% | $15.65 | $17.23 | $19.08 | $21.24 | $23.84 |
| 9.6% | $12.31 | $13.48 | $14.81 | $16.34 | $18.12 |
| 10.6% | $9.70 | $10.59 | $11.59 | $12.72 | $14.01 |
