Viatris Inc. (VTRS) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Viatris Inc. (VTRS) between $13.23 and $30.01 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$15.37 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $13.23 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $19.08 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $30.01 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $23.62 | |
Current Price
$15.37
Market-Implied Growth
-1.1%/yr
vs +2.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.23 – $30.01
model output — not a price target
VTRS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VTRS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.2B · 1.16B shares · net debt $13.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.56
+20.8% vs $15.37
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $15.37; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $26.94 | $29.64 | $33.00 | $37.29 | $42.97 |
| 7.6% | $20.62 | $22.33 | $24.37 | $26.85 | $29.94 |
| 8.6% | $16.09 | $17.23 | $18.56 | $20.13 | $22.01 |
| 9.6% | $12.67 | $13.48 | $14.39 | $15.44 | $16.67 |
| 10.6% | $10.01 | $10.59 | $11.25 | $11.98 | $12.83 |
About Viatris Inc.
Viatris Inc. operates as a global pharmaceutical and healthcare enterprise. Its business is structured across four primary geographic divisions: Developed Markets, Greater China, JANZ (Japan, Australia, New Zealand), and Emerging Markets. The company offers a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products, encompassing branded prescription medications, generic and complex generic drugs, biosimilar treatments, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). These offerings target diverse therapeutic areas, addressing both noncommunicable and infectious diseases. Its biosimilars specifically focus on critical conditions in oncology, immunology, endocrinology, ophthalmology, and dermatology. Furthermore, Viatris's APIs are utilized across numerous drug categories, including antibacterials, central nervous system agents, antihistamines/antiasthmatics, cardiovascular, antivirals, antidiabetics, antifungals, and proton pump inhibitors. Beyond manufacturing medicines, Viatris supports patient well-being through additional services such as diagnostic clinics, educational seminars, and digital tools designed to assist with health management. Products are made available in various forms, including oral solids, injectable solutions, complex dosage formulations, and raw APIs. Viatris distributes these to a broad clientele globally, including retail pharmacies, wholesalers, government bodies, insurance providers, and institutional healthcare facilities. The distribution network involves pharmaceutical wholesalers, retail and institutional pharmacies, mail-order and e-commerce platforms, and specialty pharmacies. The company's extensive portfolio includes prominent brands like Lyrica, Lipitor, Creon, Influvac, Wixela Inhub, EpiPen auto-injector, Fraxiparine, Yupelri, Norvasc, Viagra, AMITIZA, Lipacreon, Effexor, Celebrex, and ARV. Its biosimilar franchises feature products such as Fulphila, Ogivri, Hulio, and SEMGLEE. Viatris Inc. also fosters innovation through strategic collaborations and licensing agreements with partners including Revance Therapeutics, Inc., Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Theravance Biopharma, Inc., Biocon Ltd., and Fujifilm Kyowa Kirin Biologics Co. Ltd. Founded in 1961, Viatris Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
- CEO
- Scott Andrew Smith