Vistra Corp. (VST) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Vistra Corp. (VST) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$162.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +44.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.0%/yr | 12.0% | N/A |
| Base case | 7.0%/yr | 11.0% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 10.0%/yr | 10.0% | $14.47 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $15.68 | |
Current Price
$162.87
Market-Implied Growth
+44.0%/yr
vs +7.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
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VST DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.34B shares · net debt $19.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.09
-95.6% vs $162.87
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $162.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $21.50 | $24.84 | $28.70 | $33.20 | $38.52 |
| 10.0% | $11.36 | $13.73 | $16.43 | $19.51 | $23.06 |
| 11.0% | $3.40 | $5.14 | $7.09 | $9.28 | $11.77 |
| 12.0% | — | — | — | $1.36 | $3.16 |
| 13.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
About Vistra Corp.
Vistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Beyond its retail endeavors, Vistra also participates in generating electricity, facilitating wholesale energy transactions, managing commodity-related risks, producing fuel, and overseeing fuel logistics. With approximately 4.3 million customers, Vistra commands an impressive generation capacity of about 38,700 megawatts. This capacity is sustained by a diverse portfolio of facilities, including those powered by natural gas, nuclear energy, coal, solar, and advanced battery energy storage systems. The enterprise, initially known as Vistra Energy Corp., adopted its current name, Vistra Corp., in July 2020. Tracing its origins back to 1882, Vistra Corp. maintains its corporate headquarters in Irving, Texas.
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Independent Power Producers
- CEO
- James A. Burke