TGM's two-stage DCF values Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS) between $13.61 and $27.56 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.14. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$47.71 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.5%/yr | 9.2% | $13.61 |
| Base case | 15.5%/yr | 8.2% | $19.14 |
| Optimistic | 18.5%/yr | 7.2% | $27.56 |
Current Price
$47.71
Market-Implied Growth
+37.2%/yr
vs +15.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.61 – $27.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VRNS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $81.4M · 0.11B shares · net debt $309.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.14
-59.9% vs $47.71
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $47.71; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $25.06 | $27.99 | $31.70 | $36.58 | $43.25 |
| 7.2% | $19.92 | $21.80 | $24.08 | $26.89 | $30.47 |
| 8.2% | $16.33 | $17.62 | $19.14 | $20.95 | $23.14 |
| 9.2% | $13.67 | $14.61 | $15.68 | $16.93 | $18.39 |
| 10.2% | $11.64 | $12.34 | $13.13 | $14.04 | $15.07 |
