TGM's two-stage DCF values Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) between $573.78 and $1,142.80 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $792.79. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$302.50 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.7%/yr | 8.5% | $573.78 |
| Base case | 14.7%/yr | 7.5% | $792.79 |
| Optimistic | 17.7%/yr | 6.5% | $1,142.80 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $351.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$302.50
Market-Implied Growth
-6.8%/yr
vs +14.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$573.78 – $1,142.80
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VLO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $7.0B · 0.30B shares · net debt $5.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$792.79
+162.1% vs $302.50
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $302.50; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1045 | $1182 | $1365 | $1620 | $2003 |
| 6.5% | $822 | $904 | $1007 | $1139 | $1314 |
| 7.5% | $674 | $728 | $793 | $872 | $970 |
| 8.5% | $569 | $606 | $650 | $702 | $765 |
| 9.5% | $490 | $517 | $549 | $585 | $628 |
