TGM's two-stage DCF values Vertex, Inc. (VERX) between $3.42 and $6.49 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $4.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$12.29 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +39.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.8%/yr | 9.3% | $3.42 |
| Base case | 14.8%/yr | 8.3% | $4.64 |
| Optimistic | 17.8%/yr | 7.3% | $6.49 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $3.35 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$12.29
Market-Implied Growth
+39.5%/yr
vs +14.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$3.42 – $6.49
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VERX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $26.8M · 0.16B shares · net debt $36.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.64
-62.3% vs $12.29
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $12.29; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $5.93 | $6.56 | $7.36 | $8.40 | $9.80 |
| 7.3% | $4.81 | $5.22 | $5.71 | $6.32 | $7.09 |
| 8.3% | $4.02 | $4.31 | $4.64 | $5.03 | $5.51 |
| 9.3% | $3.44 | $3.65 | $3.88 | $4.15 | $4.47 |
| 10.3% | $2.99 | $3.15 | $3.32 | $3.52 | $3.75 |
