Why we don't show a single “fair value” for VCEL
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($7.52) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.0%/yr | 10.3% | $5.04 |
| Base case | 15.0%/yr | 9.3% | $6.05 |
| Optimistic | 18.0%/yr | 8.3% | $7.52 |
Current Price
$40.18
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$6.05
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for VCEL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $8.9M · 0.05B shares · net cash $86.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$6.05
-84.9% vs $40.18
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $40.18; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $7.04 | $7.48 | $8.00 | $8.65 | $9.46 |
| 8.3% | $6.20 | $6.50 | $6.86 | $7.28 | $7.78 |
| 9.3% | $5.58 | $5.80 | $6.05 | $6.34 | $6.68 |
| 10.3% | $5.10 | $5.27 | $5.45 | $5.66 | $5.91 |
| 11.3% | $4.72 | $4.85 | $4.99 | $5.15 | $5.33 |
