TGM's two-stage DCF values Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) between $43.99 and $77.95 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $58.17. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$80.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +17.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.3%/yr | 11.3% | $43.99 |
| Base case | 10.3%/yr | 10.3% | $58.17 |
| Optimistic | 13.3%/yr | 9.3% | $77.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $28.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$80.25
Market-Implied Growth
+17.7%/yr
vs +11.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$43.99 – $77.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for URBN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $312.4M · 0.09B shares · net debt $630.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$58.17
-27.5% vs $80.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $80.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $70.86 | $75.96 | $81.93 | $89.01 | $97.57 |
| 9.3% | $60.34 | $64.05 | $68.29 | $73.20 | $78.95 |
| 10.3% | $52.23 | $55.02 | $58.17 | $61.74 | $65.84 |
| 11.3% | $45.79 | $47.96 | $50.37 | $53.07 | $56.10 |
| 12.3% | $40.57 | $42.28 | $44.18 | $46.27 | $48.59 |
