TGM's two-stage DCF values Upwork Inc. (UPWK) between $13.31 and $23.95 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $17.63. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$9.53 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.4%/yr | 10.0% | $13.31 |
| Base case | 14.4%/yr | 9.0% | $17.63 |
| Optimistic | 17.4%/yr | 8.0% | $23.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $41.12 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$9.53
Market-Implied Growth
+0.1%/yr
vs +14.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.31 – $23.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UPWK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $87.7M · 0.12B shares · net debt $71.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$17.63
+85.0% vs $9.53
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $9.53; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $21.93 | $23.88 | $26.26 | $29.23 | $33.04 |
| 8.0% | $18.27 | $19.59 | $21.15 | $23.03 | $25.32 |
| 9.0% | $15.59 | $16.54 | $17.63 | $18.91 | $20.41 |
| 10.0% | $13.54 | $14.25 | $15.05 | $15.97 | $17.02 |
| 11.0% | $11.94 | $12.48 | $13.09 | $13.77 | $14.55 |
