TGM's two-stage DCF values Upwork Inc. (UPWK) between $12.02 and $21.54 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.89. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.72 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -1.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.3%/yr | 10.1% | $12.02 |
| Base case | 12.3%/yr | 9.1% | $15.89 |
| Optimistic | 15.3%/yr | 8.1% | $21.54 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $40.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$8.72
Market-Implied Growth
-1.6%/yr
vs +12.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$12.02 – $21.54
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UPWK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $87.7M · 0.12B shares · net debt $71.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$15.89
+82.3% vs $8.72
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.72; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $19.69 | $21.39 | $23.46 | $26.03 | $29.31 |
| 8.1% | $16.46 | $17.63 | $19.00 | $20.63 | $22.63 |
| 9.1% | $14.09 | $14.93 | $15.89 | $17.02 | $18.34 |
| 10.1% | $12.28 | $12.90 | $13.61 | $14.42 | $15.35 |
| 11.1% | $10.84 | $11.33 | $11.87 | $12.47 | $13.16 |
