Upwork Inc. (UPWK) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Upwork Inc. (UPWK) between $13.29 and $23.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $17.61. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$8.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -2.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.4%/yr | 10.0% | $13.29 |
| Base case | 14.4%/yr | 9.0% | $17.61 |
| Optimistic | 17.4%/yr | 8.0% | $23.92 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $43.16 | |
Current Price
$8.49
Market-Implied Growth
-2.5%/yr
vs +14.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$13.29 – $23.92
model output — not a price target
UPWK DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UPWK (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $87.7M · 0.12B shares · net debt $71.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$26.94
+217.4% vs $8.49
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $35.46 | $38.15 | $41.45 | $45.57 | $50.87 |
| 8.0% | $29.03 | $30.78 | $32.85 | $35.33 | $38.36 |
| 9.0% | $24.37 | $25.56 | $26.94 | $28.55 | $30.46 |
| 10.0% | $20.85 | $21.70 | $22.66 | $23.76 | $25.03 |
| 11.0% | $18.10 | $18.72 | $19.42 | $20.20 | $21.09 |
About Upwork Inc.
Upwork Inc., operating alongside its subsidiaries, provides a leading online work marketplace that connects businesses globally with independent professionals and agencies, spanning the United States, India, the Philippines, and other international markets. The platform grants clients access to a vast and diverse pool of talent, covering a wide array of specializations. These include key areas like sales and marketing, customer service, data science and analytics, creative design, and various aspects of web, mobile, and software development. Beyond talent acquisition, the marketplace also streamlines key operational workflows for businesses, such as sourcing candidates, managing outreach, and facilitating contract agreements. To support effective remote collaborations, Upwork offers a suite of functionalities, including robust communication and collaboration tools, simplified invoicing directly through the platform, and comprehensive payment protection. Upwork's marketplace offerings encompass various service tiers, such as Upwork Basic, Plus, Enterprise, and Payroll solutions, alongside managed and internet escrow agency services. Originally incorporated in 2013 and initially known as Elance-oDesk, Inc., the company rebranded to Upwork Inc. in May 2015. It maintains its headquarters in San Francisco, California.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Staffing & Employment Services
- CEO
- Hayden Brown