Why we don't show a single “fair value” for UPLD
Even the conservative scenario ($19.97) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$3.74 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.2% | $19.97 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.2% | $36.19 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.2% | $65.22 |
Current Price
$3.74
Market-Implied Growth
-7.1%/yr
vs -16.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$36.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UPLD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $26.8M · 0.00B shares · net debt $203.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$36.19
+867.7% vs $3.74
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $3.74; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $53.58 | $60.07 | $67.52 | $76.15 | $86.29 |
| 10.2% | $39.43 | $44.31 | $49.82 | $56.09 | $63.28 |
| 11.2% | $28.19 | $31.98 | $36.19 | $40.91 | $46.23 |
| 12.2% | $19.06 | $22.07 | $25.37 | $29.03 | $33.10 |
| 13.2% | $11.50 | $13.92 | $16.57 | $19.48 | $22.67 |
