TGM's two-stage DCF values Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) between $7.06 and $26.88 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $15.49. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$15.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.3%/yr | 12.5% | $7.06 |
| Base case | 5.3%/yr | 11.5% | $15.49 |
| Optimistic | 8.3%/yr | 10.5% | $26.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $149.89 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$15.49
Market-Implied Growth
+5.3%/yr
vs +13.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.06 – $26.88
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UPBD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $192.8M · 0.06B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$15.49
+0.0% vs $15.49
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $15.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $22.37 | $24.89 | $27.76 | $31.07 | $34.92 |
| 10.5% | $16.80 | $18.71 | $20.85 | $23.28 | $26.05 |
| 11.5% | $12.34 | $13.83 | $15.49 | $17.33 | $19.40 |
| 12.5% | $8.70 | $9.89 | $11.20 | $12.64 | $14.24 |
| 13.5% | $5.68 | $6.64 | $7.69 | $8.84 | $10.10 |
