Why we don't show a single “fair value” for UMC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($7.00) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$18.72 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.9%/yr | 12.5% | $4.67 |
| Base case | 7.9%/yr | 11.5% | $5.66 |
| Optimistic | 10.9%/yr | 10.5% | $7.00 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $4.90 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$18.72
Market-Implied Growth
+43.1%/yr
vs +6.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$5.66
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UMC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $873.7M · 2.49B shares · net cash $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$5.66
-69.8% vs $18.72
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $18.72; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $6.48 | $6.78 | $7.12 | $7.52 | $7.98 |
| 10.5% | $5.81 | $6.04 | $6.30 | $6.59 | $6.92 |
| 11.5% | $5.28 | $5.46 | $5.66 | $5.88 | $6.13 |
| 12.5% | $4.85 | $4.99 | $5.15 | $5.32 | $5.51 |
| 13.5% | $4.49 | $4.60 | $4.73 | $4.87 | $5.02 |
