United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for UMC
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($6.89) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$28.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.5%/yr | 12.5% | $4.60 |
| Base case | 7.5%/yr | 11.5% | $5.57 |
| Optimistic | 10.5%/yr | 10.5% | $6.89 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $4.89 | |
Current Price
$28.01
Market-Implied Growth
+55.5%/yr
vs +4.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$5.57
model output — not a price target
UMC DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UMC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $873.4M · 2.49B shares · net cash $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$6.37
-77.2% vs $28.01
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $28.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $7.59 | $7.86 | $8.16 | $8.51 | $8.92 |
| 10.5% | $6.74 | $6.94 | $7.15 | $7.40 | $7.68 |
| 11.5% | $6.07 | $6.22 | $6.37 | $6.55 | $6.75 |
| 12.5% | $5.53 | $5.64 | $5.75 | $5.89 | $6.03 |
| 13.5% | $5.08 | $5.16 | $5.25 | $5.35 | $5.46 |
About United Microelectronics Corporation
United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) operates as a specialized semiconductor wafer foundry, extending its services globally with operations across Taiwan, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan, the United States, and Europe. The company offers a comprehensive range of solutions, from initial circuit blueprinting and mask generation to wafer manufacturing, final assembly, and rigorous testing. UMC's customer base consists of both integrated device manufacturers and companies focused solely on chip design. This corporation, founded in 1980, has its primary headquarters situated in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Jason S. Wang