Why we don't show a single “fair value” for UI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($221.34) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$520.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +40.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.2%/yr | 11.6% | $138.12 |
| Base case | 10.2%/yr | 10.6% | $173.04 |
| Optimistic | 13.2%/yr | 9.6% | $221.34 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $321.55 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$520.58
Market-Implied Growth
+40.7%/yr
vs +8.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$173.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $578.5M · 0.06B shares · net cash $522.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$173.04
-66.8% vs $520.58
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $520.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $204 | $216 | $230 | $246 | $266 |
| 9.6% | $178 | $187 | $197 | $209 | $222 |
| 10.6% | $159 | $165 | $173 | $182 | $191 |
| 11.6% | $143 | $148 | $154 | $161 | $168 |
| 12.6% | $130 | $134 | $139 | $144 | $150 |
