Why we don't show a single “fair value” for UI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($154.95) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$525.70 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +49.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.2%/yr | 11.6% | $93.75 |
| Base case | 9.2%/yr | 10.6% | $119.43 |
| Optimistic |
| 12.2%/yr |
| 9.6% |
| $154.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $196.51 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$525.70
Market-Implied Growth
+49.3%/yr
vs +6.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$119.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $443.2M · 0.06B shares · net debt $99.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$119.43
-77.3% vs $525.70
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $525.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $142 | $151 | $161 | $173 | $187 |
| 9.6% | $123 | $130 | $137 | $146 | $156 |
| 10.6% | $109 | $114 | $119 | $126 | $133 |
| 11.6% | $97.44 | $101 | $106 | $110 | $116 |
| 12.6% | $88.01 | $91.09 | $94.46 | $98.18 | $102 |
