UGI Corporation (UGI) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for UGI Corporation (UGI) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$33.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.9% | N/A |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.9% | N/A |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.9% | N/A |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $8.38 | |
Current Price
$33.79
Market-Implied Growth
+33.4%/yr
vs +1.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
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UGI DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UGI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $259.5M · 0.21B shares · net debt $6.8B
Estimated Fair Value
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These assumptions imply no positive equity value — try a higher growth or lower discount rate.
About UGI Corporation
UGI Corporation functions as a comprehensive energy company, actively involved in the distribution, storage, transportation, and marketing of various energy products, alongside offering related services. Its operational footprint extends across both the United States and international markets. The company's diverse activities are structured into four primary segments: AmeriGas Propane, UGI International, Midstream & Marketing, and UGI Utilities. Through an expansive network comprising 1,600 distribution points, UGI supplies propane to approximately 1.4 million customers, including residential, commercial/industrial, motor fuel, agricultural, and wholesale clients. In addition to propane, it also distributes liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) to a similarly broad customer base and provides crucial logistics, storage, and support services to third-party LPG distributors. The company is also engaged in the retail sale of natural gas, liquid fuels, and electricity, serving about 12,600 residential and business customers across 42,400 individual locations. Within Pennsylvania, UGI's utility division delivers natural gas to roughly 672,000 customers in the eastern and central regions via an extensive 12,400-mile system of gas mains. It further supplies electricity to approximately 62,500 customers in northeastern Pennsylvania, utilizing 2,600 miles of power lines and 14 substations. UGI's robust infrastructure includes various electricity generation facilities powered by coal, landfill gas, solar, and natural gas. It also operates a natural gas liquefaction, storage, and vaporization complex; facilities for propane storage and propane-air blending; and rail transshipment terminals. Complementing these assets, the company manages natural gas pipeline and storage contracts, while also developing, owning, and operating its own pipelines, gathering infrastructure, and gas storage facilities. UGI Corporation was established in 1991 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Gas
- CEO
- Robert C. Flexon