TGM's two-stage DCF values United-Guardian, Inc. (UG) between $7.81 and $12.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $9.54. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$7.18 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.9% | $7.81 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.9% | $9.54 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.9% | $12.75 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $5.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$7.18
Market-Implied Growth
-4.9%/yr
vs -11.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$7.81 – $12.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7M · 0.00B shares · net cash $1.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$9.54
+32.8% vs $7.18
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $7.18; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $11.62 | $12.57 | $13.74 | $15.20 | $17.09 |
| 7.9% | $9.84 | $10.49 | $11.25 | $12.17 | $13.29 |
| 8.9% | $8.55 | $9.01 | $9.54 | $10.16 | $10.90 |
| 9.9% | $7.56 | $7.90 | $8.29 | $8.73 | $9.25 |
| 10.9% | $6.78 | $7.04 | $7.34 | $7.67 | $8.05 |
