TGM's two-stage DCF values UFP Technologies, Inc. (UFPT) between $107.66 and $190.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $144.84. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$302.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.3% | $107.66 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.3% | $144.84 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.3% | $190.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $212.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$302.87
Market-Implied Growth
+36.2%/yr
vs +26.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$107.66 – $190.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for UFPT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $43.9M · 0.01B shares · net debt $115.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$144.84
-52.2% vs $302.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $302.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $182 | $198 | $217 | $241 | $271 |
| 8.3% | $150 | $162 | $175 | $190 | $209 |
| 9.3% | $127 | $136 | $145 | $156 | $168 |
| 10.3% | $110 | $116 | $123 | $131 | $139 |
| 11.3% | $95.74 | $100 | $106 | $112 | $118 |
