TGM's two-stage DCF values Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) between $288.15 and $515.43 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $381.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$359.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.4%/yr | 9.3% | $288.15 |
| Base case | 17.4%/yr | 8.3% | $381.75 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.3% | $515.43 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $397.07 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$359.54
Market-Implied Growth
+15.9%/yr
vs +20.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$288.15 – $515.43
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TYL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $467.7M · 0.04B shares · net cash $372.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$381.75
+6.2% vs $359.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $359.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $482 | $531 | $592 | $673 | $782 |
| 7.3% | $395 | $427 | $465 | $512 | $571 |
| 8.3% | $334 | $356 | $382 | $412 | $449 |
| 9.3% | $289 | $305 | $323 | $344 | $369 |
| 10.3% | $254 | $266 | $280 | $295 | $313 |
