TGM's two-stage DCF values Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) between $284.15 and $511.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $377.55. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$323.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.4%/yr | 9.2% | $284.15 |
| Base case | 17.4%/yr | 8.2% | $377.55 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.2% | $511.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $424.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$323.31
Market-Implied Growth
+13.5%/yr
vs +20.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$284.15 – $511.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TYL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $467.7M · 0.04B shares · net cash $372.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$377.55
+16.8% vs $323.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $323.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $478 | $528 | $591 | $674 | $788 |
| 7.2% | $391 | $423 | $462 | $509 | $570 |
| 8.2% | $330 | $352 | $378 | $408 | $446 |
| 9.2% | $285 | $301 | $319 | $340 | $365 |
| 10.2% | $250 | $262 | $275 | $291 | $308 |
