Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TWFG
Even the conservative scenario ($64.98) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.5%/yr | 8.5% | $64.98 |
| Base case | 16.5%/yr | 7.5% | $84.79 |
| Optimistic | 19.5%/yr | 6.5% | $116.44 |
Current Price
$25.01
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$84.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TWFG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $25.9M · 0.01B shares · net cash $147.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$84.79
+239.0% vs $25.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $25.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $108 | $120 | $137 | $160 | $195 |
| 6.5% | $87.48 | $94.94 | $104 | $116 | $132 |
| 7.5% | $74.01 | $78.91 | $84.79 | $91.96 | $101 |
| 8.5% | $64.42 | $67.85 | $71.84 | $76.56 | $82.22 |
| 9.5% | $57.25 | $59.76 | $62.63 | $65.93 | $69.78 |
