The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)'s fair value in a range of $22.41 – $35.73 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $19.89 sits below that range — by these conservative assumptions it screens as potentially undervalued.
Reverse DCF: at today's $19.89, the market is pricing in roughly +3.3%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +18.9%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$19.89
Fair-Value Range
$22.41 – $35.73
Market-Implied Growth
+3.3%/yr
vs +18.9% 5Y actual
TTD DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $607.1M · 0.47B shares · net cash $581.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$22.41
+12.7% vs $19.89
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $19.89; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $27.55 | $28.90 | $30.49 | $32.40 | $34.74 |
| 9.0% | $23.84 | $24.76 | $25.82 | $27.06 | $28.53 |
| 10.0% | $21.01 | $21.67 | $22.41 | $23.26 | $24.24 |
| 11.0% | $18.79 | $19.27 | $19.81 | $20.41 | $21.09 |
| 12.0% | $17.00 | $17.36 | $17.76 | $18.20 | $18.70 |
About The Trade Desk, Inc.
The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform. This platform enables advertising buyers to efficiently create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across diverse formats and channels, including display, video, audio, native, and social media, reaching audiences on computers, mobile devices, and connected TVs. In addition to the platform, the company offers various data and value-added services. Their primary clients are advertising agencies and other service providers who represent advertisers. The Trade Desk was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Ventura, California.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Advertising Agencies
- CEO
- Jeffrey Terry Green