Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TTD
Even the conservative scenario ($29.01) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$14.05 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.1% | $29.01 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.1% | $37.60 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.1% | $48.22 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $36.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$14.05
Market-Implied Growth
-7.3%/yr
vs +25.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$37.60
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TTD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $587.8M · 0.47B shares · net cash $581.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$37.60
+167.5% vs $14.05
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.05; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $46.21 | $50.06 | $54.74 | $60.57 | $68.00 |
| 8.1% | $38.89 | $41.53 | $44.63 | $48.33 | $52.84 |
| 9.1% | $33.52 | $35.42 | $37.60 | $40.14 | $43.12 |
| 10.1% | $29.42 | $30.84 | $32.44 | $34.27 | $36.37 |
| 11.1% | $26.19 | $27.28 | $28.50 | $29.87 | $31.41 |
