TGM's two-stage DCF values Trane Technologies plc (TT) between $153.49 and $267.02 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $200.62. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$482.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.1%/yr | 11.0% | $153.49 |
| Base case | 11.1%/yr | 10.0% | $200.62 |
| Optimistic | 14.1%/yr | 9.0% | $267.02 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $263.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$482.31
Market-Implied Growth
+33.2%/yr
vs +11.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$153.49 – $267.02
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.22B shares · net debt $2.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$200.62
-58.4% vs $482.31
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $482.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $244 | $262 | $283 | $308 | $338 |
| 9.0% | $208 | $221 | $235 | $252 | $273 |
| 10.0% | $180 | $190 | $201 | $213 | $227 |
| 11.0% | $159 | $166 | $174 | $183 | $194 |
| 12.0% | $141 | $147 | $153 | $161 | $168 |
