Trane Technologies plc (TT) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Trane Technologies plc (TT) between $148.45 and $256.30 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $193.39. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$474.34 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.0%/yr | 11.2% | $148.45 |
| Base case | 11.0%/yr | 10.2% | $193.39 |
| Optimistic | 14.0%/yr | 9.2% | $256.30 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $259.67 | |
Current Price
$474.34
Market-Implied Growth
+33.7%/yr
vs +11.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$148.45 – $256.30
model output — not a price target
TT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.22B shares · net debt $2.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$259.04
-45.4% vs $474.34
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $474.34; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.2% | $329 | $348 | $369 | $395 | $427 |
| 9.2% | $278 | $291 | $306 | $323 | $343 |
| 10.2% | $240 | $249 | $259 | $271 | $284 |
| 11.2% | $209 | $216 | $223 | $232 | $241 |
| 12.2% | $185 | $190 | $195 | $201 | $208 |
About Trane Technologies plc
Trane Technologies plc designs, manufactures, sells, and services of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and custom and transport refrigeration. It offers air conditioners, exchangers, and handlers; airside and terminal devices; air sourced heat pumps; chillers; coils and condensers; auxiliary power, cold storage, and condensing units; controls contracting and commissioning, decarbonization programs, and gensets; dehumidifiers; energy and water efficiency programs; energy recovery ventilators and power solutions; energy storage; furnaces; home automation; humidifiers; HVAC performance-monitoring products; and indoor air quality assessments and related products for HVAC and transport solutions. The company also provides asset management, building management, bus air purification, bus and rail HVAC, container refrigeration, control, ductless, geothermal, data center and multi-pipe HVAC, package heating and cooling, rail refrigeration, residential air filtration, self and vehicle powered truck refrigeration, temporary heating and cooling, truck refrigeration, unitary, variable refrigerant flow, and trailer refrigeration systems. In addition, it offers industrial process refrigeration, installation contracting, lighting retrofit, medical grade refrigeration, refrigerant reclamation, renewable energy and storage, residential hybrid heating, telematics, thermostats/controls and associated digital, ventilation, and stationary cold storage solutions; packaged rooftop units; rate chambers; residential air filters; thermal energy storage; transport heater products; temperature freezers; energy infrastructure programs and management, repair and maintenance, smart and AI-enabled, and rental services; water source heat pumps; and aftermarket and OEM parts and supplies. The company was formerly known as Ingersoll-Rand Plc and changed its name to Trane Technologies plc in March 2020. The company was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Swords, Ireland.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Machinery, Tools, Heavy Vehicles, Trains & Ships
- CEO
- David S. Regnery