Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TRUP
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($12.29) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$24.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.3% | $8.13 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.3% | $10.09 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.3% | $12.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $35.32 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$24.68
Market-Implied Growth
+43.8%/yr
vs +20.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$10.09
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TRUP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $19.5M · 0.04B shares · net cash $26.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$10.09
-59.1% vs $24.68
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $24.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $11.80 | $12.44 | $13.17 | $14.01 | $15.00 |
| 10.3% | $10.41 | $10.89 | $11.43 | $12.04 | $12.74 |
| 11.3% | $9.30 | $9.67 | $10.09 | $10.55 | $11.07 |
| 12.3% | $8.41 | $8.70 | $9.03 | $9.39 | $9.78 |
| 13.3% | $7.67 | $7.91 | $8.17 | $8.45 | $8.76 |
