Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TRIP
Even the conservative scenario ($34.84) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$8.54 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -19.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.3% | $34.84 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.3% | $46.93 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.3% | $62.64 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 6, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $106.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$8.54
Market-Implied Growth
-19.2%/yr
vs +23.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$46.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TRIP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $167.5M · 0.12B shares · net debt $137.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$46.93
+449.2% vs $8.54
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.54; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $59.89 | $66.21 | $74.19 | $84.58 | $98.67 |
| 7.3% | $48.67 | $52.76 | $57.70 | $63.78 | $71.45 |
| 8.3% | $40.78 | $43.61 | $46.93 | $50.86 | $55.62 |
| 9.3% | $34.94 | $37.00 | $39.35 | $42.08 | $45.27 |
| 10.3% | $30.45 | $32.00 | $33.74 | $35.72 | $37.99 |
